Modeling the economy and politics for the optimal development

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Modeling the economy and politics for the optimal development




AIM: looking for optimal (stabile, safe, healthy) growth of economy

MAIN TOPICS: Modeling of politics, human decision making, finances, economy; phase transitions in economy; innovations.

ORGANIZER: A. Alikhanyan National Science Laboratory (Yerevan Physics Institute) with the Support of the Government of RA

CHAIRS: Th. Lux and D. B. Saakian

ORGANIZING COMMITTEE: David Saakian, Arman Barsegyan, Alexander Esayan, Ararat Saakian, Arman Martirosyan, Armen Allahverdyan

1 April, 2019
08:30 - 09:00 Registration
09:00 - 09:30 Opening Session
Welcome addresses
Tigran Avinyan, Vice-Prime Minister of RA
Arayik Harutyunyan, Minister of Education and Science of RA
Bernhard Matthias Kiesler, Ambassador of Germany in Armenia
Alexandr Esayan, President of UITE

09:30-10:45 Session I: Modeling the Society. Chair M. Matteo

09:30-10:10 Modeling the dynamic opinion: an application to election forecasts
Serge Galam, SciencesPo,Paris, France

10:10-10:45 Predicting the unforeseeable: Brexit and Trump cases
Serge Galam, SciencesPo,Paris, France

10:45-11:00 Coffee break

11:00-11:45 Quantum theory of human decision making
Didier Sornette, ETH, Zurich, Switzerland

11:45-12:10 Quantum mechanics and development trends in 21-th century
Armen Sargsyan, President of RA, Armenia

12:10-13:10 Lunch

13:10-15:45 Session II: Modeling the Financial Risks, the Crisis. Chair D. Sornette

13:10-13:50 Continuous-Time Markov-Switching Multifractal Models: Their Estimation and Application in Risk Management
Thomas Lux, Kiel University, Germany

13:50-14:20 Financial bubbles in Cantor-Lipmann continuous time model
Alexander Shananin, Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, Moscow, Russia

14:20-14:35 Coffee break

14:35-15:15 The Topology of the Bank – Firm Credit Network and its Role as Channel of Financial Contagion
Thomas Lux, Kiel University, Germany

15:15-15:45 Systemic Risk Reduction in Financial Networks (Skype talk)
Stefan Thurner, Wien Med. University.

15:45-16:00 Coffee break

16:00-18:15 Session III: Optimal Economics. Chair T. Lux

16:00-16:45 Economic and wealth growth in modern societies: a scientific approach to diagnose and foster healthy growth
Didier Sornette, ETH Zurich, Switzerland

16:45-17:25 Technological spillovers and innovation networks – agent-based modelling of industrial Research and Development.
Andreas Pyka, Hohenheim University, Stuttgart, Germany

17:25-18:10 Optimal development (Skype talk)
Yaneer Bar-Yam, New England Complex Systems Institute, Cambridge, MA. USA

18:30-22:00 Conference banquette

2 April, 2019
08:30-10:10 Session IV: The Economy as a Complex Phenomenon. Chairs D. Saakian and Ao Ping

08:30-09:00 Modeling the leader phenomenon
Armen Alahverdyan, ANL (YerPhI), Yerevan, Armenia

09:00-09:30 The modeling of the competition between the American and Chinese economies
Ali Hosseiny, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran

09:30-10:10 Strategic energy analysis for the future: physics, thermodynamics, grid engineering, demographics and economics
Didier Sornette, ETH, Zurich, Switzerland

10:10-10:50 The statistical mechanics of complex economies
Matteo Marsilli, ICTP, Trieste, Italy

10:50-11:20 Evolution as the quantitative dynamical framework for complex systems and applications to economics
Ao Ping, Shanghai Center for Systems Biomedicine, Shanghai, China

11:20-11.50 Collective decisions in gambling games based on ratchets
Juan Parrondo, Madrid University, Spain

11:50-12:10 Coffee break

12:10-14:00 Session V: Some Problems of Armenian Economy. Chair T. Avinyan

12:10-12:35 Economic security and economic diplomacy for development strategy in Armenia
T. Manaseryan, YSU, Yerevan, Armenia

13:35-13:00 Research and development Sector modeling in Armenia
N. Martirosyan, YSU, Yerevan, Armenia

13:00-14:00 Lunch

14:00-14:45 Conclusions: what we need for optimal development? Chairs Th. Lux, D. Sornette and D. B. Saakian

14:45-18:00 Panel discussions
14:45-16:15 The innovation clusters basic science-education-industry. Chair Andreas Pyka
The participants: David Saakian, Vardan Sahakyan, Khachatur Nerkararyan, Ricard Sole, Didier Sornette, Matteo Marsili, Ao Ping, Iris Dzeba, Murad Thovmasyan.

16:15-16:30 Coffee break

16:30-18:00 Stimulating growth and development: lessons for economic policy in Armenia. Chairs Vache Gabrielyan and Ricardi Giucci
The participants: Tatoul Manaseryan, Narek Martirosyan, Arman Martirosyan, Edmond Vardumyan, Arman Barsegyan